Streamlined Overview:

All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. Results are displayed for our selected baseline model: with GDP, population, weather controls, all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013), a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 1990-2021.

Country sample: EU-15 (excluding Luxembourg), United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland
For certain specifications (coal, nuclear, exports, imports) countries with significant level of zero values have been removed.

“Channels” refer to our indicated “demand/generation” and “technology” channels which distinguish between changes in electricity consumption/behavior (demand, generation, exports/imports) and electricity sources. For clarity, detected breaks are represented by black lines in the comparison plots.

Emissions: All detected breaks

Emissions

Negative Breaks

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Portugal

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Positive Breaks

Australia

Austria

France

Germany

Japan

Netherlands

NewZealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland